Today’s release of the July housing data by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showed good news on the housing front. Following a disappointing spring selling season, National home sales were up 3.8% in July from the month before, with Toronto seeing transactions rebound 35.5% since March. However, the total number of Toronto sales remains low by historical standards.

On a year-over-year basis, total transactions have risen 11.2% since March. 

There is growing confidence that the Canadian economy will resiliently weather the tariff trauma. The Canadian dollar is up, and longer-term interest rates have edged downward in the past ten days. Traders are now anticipating a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.

Tuesday’s release of the Canadian CPI will provide another data point for the Bank of Canada. Economic growth has held up, in large part because much of the pain from tariffs has been confined to industries singled out for levies, including autos, steel and aluminum.

Shaun Cathcart, the real estate board’s senior economist, said, “With sales posting a fourth consecutive increase in July, and almost 4% at that, the long-anticipated post-inflation crisis pickup in housing seems to have finally arrived. The shock and maybe the dread that we felt back in February, March and April seem to have faded,” as people become less concerned about their future employment.

New Listings

New supply was little changed (+0.1%) month-over-month in July. Combined with the notable increase in sales, the national sales-to-new listings ratio rose to 52%, up from 50.1% in June and 47.4% in May. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 54.9%, with readings roughly between 45% and 65% generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions.

There were 202,500 properties listed for sale on all Canadian MLS® Systems at the end of July 2025, up 10.1% from a year earlier and in line with the long-term average for that time of the year.

“Activity continues to pick up through the transition from the spring to the summer market, which is the opposite of a normal year, but this has not been a normal year,” said Valérie Paquin, CREA Chair. “Typically, we see a burst of new listings right at the beginning of September to kick off the fall market, but it seems like buyers are increasingly returning to the market.

There were 4.4 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of July 2025, dropping further below the long-term average of five months of inventory as sales continue to pick up. Based on one standard deviation above and below that long-term average, a seller’s market would be below 3.6 months, and a buyer’s market would be above 6.4 months.

Home Prices

The National Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) was unchanged between June and July 2025. Following declines in the first quarter of the year, the national benchmark price has remained mostly stable since May.

The non-seasonally adjusted National Composite MLS® HPI was down 3.4% compared to July 2024. This was a smaller decrease than the one recorded in June.

Based on the extent to which prices fell off in the second half of 2024, look for year-over-year declines to continue to shrink in the months ahead.

Bottom Line

Homebuyers are responding to improving fundamentals in the Canadian housing market. Supply has risen as new listings surged until May of this year. Additionally, the benchmark price was $688,700, 3.4% lower than a year earlier. That decrease was smaller than in June, and the board expects year-over-year declines to continue shrinking, it said in a statement.

While many expect the Fed to ease in September, I’m not sure it will happen. The producer price index came in hotter than expected this week. Fed action will depend mainly on the personal consumption expenditures index (PCE), the Fed’s favourite measure of inflation, which will be out on August 29. 

US stagflation worries have emerged with the release of the July employment report, which showed considerable weakness, enough to get the head of the Bureau of Labour Statistics fired. The likelihood of a BoC cut will increase if the Fed begins a series of easing moves as the administration is demanding.

Dr. Sherry Cooper

This month I’ve put together a game of This or That for you. I’m challenging you to not only pick This or That, but also to think about why it’s the better course of action. After you’ve worked through the scenario, read on for the answer and explanation. And let me know how many you got right!

This or That: Underpricing or Overpricing Your Home?Underpricing is a common strategy in hot markets, since a lower asking price can attract multiple buyers and cause a bidding war. You could end up selling for more than the market value, just because of the demand.Overpricing deters buyers, your home sits on the market for longer, and it transfers the power to the buyer in negotiations.  So, the clear winner is underpricing your home. This or That: Selling in the Spring or Selling in the Fall?Selling in the spring means there are a lot more homes on the market at the same time, and typically an active time in the housing market. The US data shows homes sell for 1.6% more than the monthly average in the spring.Selling in the fall means less competition for sellers, and motivated buyers who want to be in a new place before the snow flies. Your real estate agent will also be less busy and can provide you more attention and better service. So, there’s no wrong answer here! This or That: Professional Staging, Cleaning and Photography or DIY?Hiring a professional for every job takes time, coordination, and money – and gets great results. To determine if it’s the right move for you, consider how much more you’d be able to sell your home for. If the costs outweigh the benefits, it might be best to skip this step.However, don’t forget that pictures of your home are where potential buyers get their first impression of your home. Without good photos and an accessible environment for viewings, a great buyer might not be interested. This one is a toss up – consulting a neutral third party like your agent or neighbour might help you decide elements are needed and what you can do yourself. One pro tip I can offer you is to use ChatGPT (or Copilot, etc.) to help you with staging and décor – just put in the dimensions and ask for the ideal layout with your existing furniture. This or That: Getting an Inspection Before or After Listing?If you get an inspection before you list, you’ll be able to get a full and unbiased review of your home. You can choose to fix any issues, or list as is with a clear picture of your home. You won’t be surprised or blindsided by a buyers’ inspection coming up with issues, you can list the property at the correct price, and you’ll be in the driver’s seat during negotiations.Letting the buyer have an inspection saves money but gives them the power to negotiate. The better course of action here is to inspect pre-listing. This or That: Renovate to Increase Your Home’s Value or Leave As-is?Homeowners often complete expensive renovations before selling their home – but frequently don’t make their money back when selling. The new owners may have different tastes, or other plans for the layout or the home (including demolition!). Not only do renovations take time, but they may also require permits, inspections, or approvals. Overall, renovations before you sell are not financially beneficial.However, some repairs are critical to selling your home. Things like a leaking toilet or a hole in the drywall could easily deter a potential buyer and lower the value of your home. The best course of action here is to complete essential repairs so that the home is ready for immediate occupancy – but not spend money on extra renovations. This or That: Using a Real Estate Agent or Listing For Sale By Owner (FSBO)?If you go the FSBO route, you take on all the stress and legal responsibility of research, showing, legal documentation and more. The main reason people choose this route is to save on the commission costs of selling a home.The benefits of using an agent are plentiful, like getting the pricing, staging and photography right. You can also rely on them for all the paperwork. If a plot twist comes up, they’re there to help. You can also benefit from having your home listed on their website and their social media accounts to get your property more visibility. The winner for the average person is to use an agent. This or That: Requiring Notice in Advance or Showing Anytime?Keeping your home clean, tidy, and free of people and pets so that it’s ready for a showing is a real challenge for sellers if they’re living in the home they’re trying to sell. But for buyers who are already in the neighbourhood, inflexibility to view your home might discourage them from coming back. That means missed opportunities to sell and maybe even a lost sale.There isn’t a clear winner here, but being as flexible as possible with potential buyers creates the most opportunities for a sale. This or That: Emotions and Instinct or Advice and Numbers?This might sound like an easy one – but not so fast! The highest bidder might not be the person you want to sell your home to. Imagine you received a thoughtful letter with an offer explaining how the buyer pictures raising their children in your home – vs more money from a developer who plans to raze the property.However, you need a cool head during important negotiations. A few issues are likely to be uncovered during the home inspection. No home is perfect, so don’t let a request for minor repairs derail the deal. The winner here is a balance of emotions and numbers – and each reader will need to find an equilibrium they can live with.